WAC: Boise State or Hawaii?
By Jeff Frank
Not only did the Broncos sweep their eight conference games last season, they finished the season undefeated after “hook and laddering” Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State ended the campaign 13-0 with a fifth-place finish in the final AP Poll.
The WAC improved dramatically with a 6-14 record against BCS schools, much better than its 0-16 mark from 2005. The league also finished above .500 ATS in non-conference games at 18-17. The top four teams won three bowl games with the only loss coming from Nevada, a one-point defeat, at the hands of Miami- Florida. All four schools (Boise State, Hawaii, San Jose State and Nevada) covered the spread.
Can Boise repeat as WAC champions or will Hawaii reel off an undefeated season as a lot of writers are predicting? The Broncos are 100-1 to win the BCS National Championship Game while the Rainbows are 300-1. The other seven clubs are part of the field, currently listed at 50-1. Let’s take an inside look at the conference:
1) BOISE STATE - The Broncos had won 31 consecutive league games until Fresno State squashed them 27-7 in 2005. How did they respond to that defeat? How about 10 straight conference wins to move to 41-1 in their last 42 WAC games! Strengths - Ian Johnson rambled to the end zone 25 times last season to go along with 1,713 yards. The offensive line returns four starters from last year and is by far the biggest and best in the conference. The defense will be strong as well, despite losing two of its top three tacklers. Remember, only three starters returned in the 2001 season and the defense allowed just one- half point more per game than the year before. Weaknesses - A new quarterback must call the shots in Boise after three-year starter Jared Zabransky leaves. In addition, the top four pass-catchers all depart. Bottom line - In Zabransky’s first year, the Broncos ended the regular season with a perfect 11-0 record so back-to-back undefeated seasons is not out of the question. However, look for them to lose at Hawaii on November 23 ruining their 26-game winning streak. The last time Boise failed to go over .500 against the spread was back in 1998 so don’t look for it to happen in 2007.
2) HAWAII - June Jones breathed a sigh of relief the day Colt Brennan decided to remain in Honolulu. The senior quarterback’s two main reasons for returning are to reach a BCS bowl game and finish off his career with an undefeated season. Strengths - The Rainbows led the nation in scoring, passing and total offense last year as Brennan threw for 58 TDs and over 5,500 yards, completing 73% of his passes. Heck, the punter came on the field only seven times the final eight games! Weaknesses - Going into last season, the offensive line had a combined 88 lifetime starts. This season, that number is down to 31 as two first team and one second-team WAC linemen depart. The defensive line was also hit hard as two all-conference performers will be applying their trade in the NFL this season. Defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville, who was the architect of the “D” that shaved off 14 ppg since 2004, leaves the program after accepting a head coaching position at Portland State. Bottom line - Even though the Rainbows will knock off Boise State, they will drop two conference games prior to their match-up with the Broncos. Expect a 10-2 record, 6-2 in conference play. They are a solid team to bet against as the public will jump all over them this season.
3) NEW MEXICO STATE - The Aggies failed to win a single game in Hal Mumme’s first season in Las Cruces. Last year, they won four games and have a great shot at doubling that in ‘07. Strengths - New Mexico State had an amazing 15 more plays per game than its opposition last year which was tops in the country. That’s one reason Chase Holbrook had such a stellar season, throwing for over 4,600 yards with 34 TDs against just nine interceptions. Running back Justine Buries missed the last 10 games last year and his return will be a huge boost to the explosive offense. The defense was wrought with injuries, including the death of a linebacker, prior to the season. Even so, the Aggies allowed eight points less per game and almost a half-yard less per rush. More improvement is expected in ‘07. Weaknesses - The Aggies finished last in WAC play allowing 24 sacks and next to last in offensive turnovers with 21. Bottom line - New Mexico State owns the nation’s longest bowl drought of all teams that have played in at least one bowl game (46 years). That streak will end this season with an 8-4 mark and a three-way tie for third place in the WAC at 5-3. The Aggies will also have one of the top ATS records in the country!
4) FRESNO STATE - What an awful season it was for Fresno last year. The Bulldogs lost more games (eight) than they did the previous two regular seasons combined and at one point had dropped seven in a row! Strengths - The offensive line, which opened holes for five yards a carry last year, returns four starters. Injuries on the defensive side of the ball killed Fresno State last year and the unit as a whole will improve on its worst showing in over a decade. Weaknesses - The offense, without consistency at the QB position, scored just 23 ppg, down 15 points from the previous season. Only two clubs (Utah State and Michigan State) had a worse defensive TD-INT ratio as the Bulldogs allowed 26 passing touchdowns and intercepted only five balls. Bottom line - The last time, prior to ‘06, that Fresno State finished under .500 was back in 1998. The following season the Bulldogs won eight games. Don’t expect that type of turnaround this year, but 6-6 and 5-3 in WAC play will be a respectable season. In addition, they won’t finish 2-10 ATS like they did in ‘06.
5) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack have won 17 games the past two years, the best two- year stretch since 18 victories in ‘95-’96. Strengths - Nevada’s defense limited opponents to just 19 ppg last year and recorded 30 sacks the final nine games. Seven defensive starters return so look for another solid season. The Pack lose its leading rusher Robert Hubbard, but Brandon Fragger, who missed the final six games and Luke Lipincott will more than hold their own. The receiving core will be without its top pass catcher in Caleb Spencer, but once again there is loads of talent and speed amongst the holdovers. Weaknesses - Quarterback Jeff Rowe completed his eligibility so the position will be up for grabs between Nick Graziano and Colin Kaepernick. The defense forced 23 turnovers in league play (tops in the WAC), but loses its top two interception leaders, who combined for 10 picks last year. Bottom line - Nevada is a remarkable 15-3 (5-1 each season) at home since Chris Ault took over as head coach. Another 5-1 mark will lead the Wolf Pack to a 7-5 season and a piece of the three-way tie for third in the conference. They may not finish 10-2 ATS like they did a year ago, but should not be taken lightly even with uncertainty at the QB spot.
6) SAN JOSE STATE - The Spartans won only eight games combined in’03-’05, but went 9-4 last year, including a win in their first bowl game since 1990. Strengths - Quarterback Adam Tafralis finished 11th nationally in passing efficiency with 21 TDs and a 66% completion rate. A marked improvement from his 11 TDs and 50% completion percentage in ‘05. San Jose’s defense allowed 42.6 ppg the year before head coach Dick Tomey arrived and in two short years, the “D” cut that number in half giving up just 21 ppg in ’06. The cornerback duo of Dwight Lowery and Chris Owens led the nation with a combined 13 interceptions. Weaknesses - That CB combo must continue to perform at a high level, as the top five safeties are no longer with the team. In addition, the defense allowed 3.5 ypc or more in 10 of the 13 games. It will be interesting to see if Tafralis reverts back to his ‘05 form as San Jose State loses 78% of its completions with James Jones, John Broussard and Chester Coleman all departing. The leading returning pass catcher is fullback James Callier. Bottom line - The Spartans will not be as successful as they were last season. A 5-7 record, 4-4 in the WAC, will leave the folks in San Jose feeling empty. Play against them early and often.
7) IDAHO - With four wins last year, the Vandals had their best season since a five-win campaign back in 2000. However, head coach Dennis Erickson waved goodbye and Washington State defensive line coach Robb Akey takes over. Strengths - The defense, which finished fourth in league play in yards allowed, returns seven starters, including the top six tacklers. All-WAC cornerback Stanley Franks tied for the national lead in interceptions with nine. Weaknesses - Idaho has given up at least 4.7 ypc each of the last six seasons and the offense will be without its top three pass catchers and its quarterback. Bottom line - The lower echelon teams in the WAC usually have zero chance of upsetting the big boys, so it’s imperative to knock off the other basement dwellers. The Vandals did that last season and should do so again. They will win three games, two in conference play and by the middle of the season, will be a team to watch ATS.
8) LOUISIANA TECH - The Bulldogs finished last in the country in scoring and total defense, and won just three games after going 7-4 the previous season. Strengths - The major reason for the stumble was the loss of nine defensive starters. With 10 back this year, look for the ‘Dogs to make major strides. Remember, Louisiana Tech’s recruiting classes from ’05 and ’06 were rated near the top of the WAC. Weaknesses - L-Tech finished dead last in conference play last season turning the ball over 23 times in eight games. The defense recorded just nine sacks the entire season! Bottom line - The Bulldogs are still a year away from competing in the ever-improving WAC and will win only three games this season, two in league play. Nonetheless, L-Tech is a dark horse when it comes to betting against the spread.
9) UTAH STATE - The goal for head coach Brent Guy is to win at least two games after the Aggies posted just one “W” in the victory column last season. Strengths - Ten of the top 11 tacklers return and that doesn’t include LB Jake Hutton, who was leading the team in that department after four games, before an injury shelved him for rest of the season. Injuries also devastated the offensive line. Weaknesses - Both the offense and defense finished 117th in the nation in scoring. Last year’s leading runner Marcus Cross left the program to be closer to his family in Texas, so QB Leon Jackson is the leading returning rusher with just 105 yards! Bottom line - Utah State has a good chance to go winless this season, as the Aggies are the worst team in the country. They went 3-9 ATS in ’06 and might cover the same amount in ‘07.
