Betting Odds - Graffiti - Podcast

By JAKE COYLE, AP Entertainment Writer

NEW YORK - As this summer’s slate of sequels marches on, Hollywood is planning even more installments of their biggest franchises.

With an indefinite number of future “Spider-Man” movies on tap and an 11th “Star Trek” coming next year, how many sequels are enough?

“The marketplace decides,” says Tom Ortenberg, president of theatrical films at Lionsgate, which will release “Saw IV” in October and bring back Sylvester Stallone next year in “John Rambo.” “If the marketplace is there to support it, you find a way to get it done.”

“In such a crowded marketplace, being able to break through the clutter is half the battle,” he says. “Sequels, already branded, make it that much easier to break through that clutter with a title that is already familiar to consumers.”

By the end of August, 14 sequels will have passed through movie theaters, many of them exiting with bags of money in tow. “Spider-Man 3″ has grossed more than $335 million, “Shrek the Third” $318 million and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” $304 million. All three have combined for over $1.5 billion overseas.

Since the days of Aristotle, the number 3 has been considered the most perfect figure in dramatic arts. But studios still find it hard to decline potential fortunes for the sake of a trilogy’s neat narrative structure.

A fourth “Shrek” film is scheduled for 2010. Jeffrey Katzenberg, chief executive of DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc., recently said a fifth will follow.

There are no current plans for another “Pirates” film, but Johnny Depp has indicated he’s open to it. Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios have said with certainty that “Spider-Man” will be back, but writer-director Sam Raimi and stars Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst have voiced reluctance to continue.

“I know there’ll be a `Spider-Man 4, 5 and 6,’” Raimi said earlier this year. “I just won’t be the guy that’ll probably write the story, because I’ve got to clear my head.”

Instead, Raimi has been linked to “The Hobbit,” a film based on J.R.R. Tolkien’s prelude to the “Lord of the Rings” series. Peter Jackson, who directed the well-planned “Lord of the Rings” trilogy, is suing New Line Cinema over profits from “Rings,” complicating plans for “The Hobbit.”

It wasn’t always like this.

“`Sequel’ was a dirty word,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box-office tracker Media By Numbers. “They were seen as an exploitive way to capitalize on a brand name recognition of a popular movie by making the same movie and putting a `2′ behind it.”

Dergarabedian recalls feeling a shift when 1999’s “Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me” made more money in its first weekend than the original made in its entire theatrical run. Now, sequels don’t ride the coattails of the original so much as they gain momentum, swelling into larger and larger behemoths with each progressive installment.

But how long will audiences keep paying to see the same franchise? Part of the trick is to make the old seem new again.

“John Rambo” carefully avoids what would be an unappealing “IV.” Stallone did the same earlier this year with “Rocky Balboa,” the sixth “Rocky” film.

Both are part of what might be called nostalgic sequels. Included in the trend is the recently released “Live Free or Die Hard,” the fourth installment in the “Die Hard” series, a dozen years after its last. There’s even a planned sequel to “Alien vs. Predator,” which itself was based on old franchises. “Alien vs. Predator 2″ is scheduled for release this Christmas.

The most anticipated of nostalgic sequels is the as-yet-titled fourth “Indiana Jones.” Currently shooting, the new “Indiana Jones” struggled for years to line up everything before beginning production with Harrison Ford starring and Steven Spielberg directing. Sean Connery declined to participate.

There have even been rumblings of a fourth “Ocean’s” movie following this summer’s “Ocean’s Thirteen.” Opening Aug. 3 is “The Bourne Ultimatum,” and while it’s based on Robert Ludlum’s third and final “Bourne” novel, author Eric Van Lustbader recently picked up the series, writing two more “Bourne” books.

A spokesman for NBC Universal said that “Ultimatum” concludes the questions posed by the first chapter of Jason Bourne’s adventures, “with the potential for continuation remaining open.”

“Transformers,” which was based on the `80s toys and animated TV show, has grossed over $223 million in two weeks and seems destined for at least one sequel. Martin Levy, a marketing executive at DreamWorks (which co-produced the movie with Paramount), says: “It’s a very logical thing to think that we can look forward to another one.”

Whether the source material is serialized or not is an important part of the sequel craze. “Harry Potter” came tailor-made for a seven-part franchise, with a film based on each book. The fifth movie, “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix,” has made over $139.7 million since opening last week.

Kevin Feige, president of production at Marvel Studios, believes the recent popularity of sequels is because many are based on “ongoing sagas.” Marvel, which holds the rights to many of the most popular comic book characters, is well situated to draw from its extensive library for franchise sequels.

Feige says another “X-Men” film is possible and that spin-offs for Wolverine and Magneto are in the works. A third “Fantastic Four” following this summer’s “Rise of the Silver Surfer” edition is also possible, and Feige says a Silver Surfer stand-alone script has been “moved to the forefront” of discussions.

“There’s always stuff that ends up in our back pocket or that we put to the side in our if-we-should-be-so-lucky-next-time folder,” says Feige of Marvel’s comic book source material. “It’s not difficult finding which storylines or characters we’re going to use in one of our films. It’s difficult deciding which ones not to use.”

In this way, “Spider-Man,” “Harry Potter” and “Batman” (the seventh of which will be released next year) have more in common with a serial like the James Bond films (based on Ian Fleming’s novels) than “Police Academy.”

Peter Bart, editor-in-chief of the daily Hollywood trade paper Variety, credits the studios for improving the quality of their franchise sequels.

“The studios have learned how to win at this business,” says Bart. “They’ve picked the right subjects and understood how to exploit them internationally.”

But as the sequel numbers pile up, Bart says, the studios are moving into “new waters.” Every time they go back to the well, the riskier it gets to depend on the same franchises.

“The big question,” he says,” is how long will they endure?”

Alex Carnevale and Bill Barnwell

FootballOutsiders.com

The value of running backs — and the importance placed on acquiring an elite one — has declined over the past several years. The emergence of successful running back committees across the league, the wide variance in running back performance from year to year and the dramatic impact of offensive line play on a running back’s performance have shifted the perception of what a successful running back is, and the role he plays on a successful team.

Is the running back by committee a fad? It’s hard to say. NFL teams generally move towards the most efficient method of using their cap space and players possible, even if it takes some teams more time than others. At some point, there’s likely to be a market inefficiency in which elite-caliber running backs will be undervalued; until then, though, strugglers like Edgerrin James, Ahman Green and DeShaun Foster will continue to eat up cap space while the more palatable combinations in Jacksonville, Dallas and Denver remain healthier and more productive for years to come.

And then, flying in the face of all that enlightened capology, LaDainian Tomlinson is scoring touchdowns like he’s playing Powerball and the American Gladiators were replaced by a relatively poor Quidditch team. The times are a-changin’, but Tomlinson’s team tops our list of running backs as ranked by organization.

These ranks are forward-looking, knocking down teams whose running backs may have been overworked last year, and they consider depth, which won’t make us any friends in Indianapolis. Last year’s rank is in parentheses. You’ll see mentions of stats in the sidebar.

What goes into the rankings # DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, measures performance per play adjusted for situation and opponent.

# DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, measures performance compared to a replacement-level running back in the same situation.

1. Chargers (2)

You start with the consensus best back in the business, team him with a guy he’s worked with before in Norv Turner and then you add a guy in Michael Turner, who, by the way the Chargers value him, could start for of half the teams in the league as a feature back. Did we mention that fullback Lorenzo Neal is among the league’s best fullbacks? Of course, we could have said the same thing about Mack Strong and last year’s No. 1 RB, Shaun Alexander, and Strong fell off of a cliff and has yet to hit the ground, while the Seahawks don’t show up for another thousand words or so. What insulates the Chargers from the same workload concerns that Alexander succumbed to last season is the presence of Turner, whose 46.7 percent DVOA in limited time last season was the best of any running back in football. Furthermore, while Tomlinson is no longer the 100-catch guy he was in 2003, it’s not because he’s playing worse. Many of Tomlinson’s catches in that ‘03 season were dump-offs on third and long that did nothing to help the team win, which is reflected in his poor DVOA for that year, -34.2 percent. His receiving DVOA has steadily risen as he’s become more effective out of the backfield and run slightly deeper routes, leading to a very solid 12.6 percent DVOA whilst receiving in 2006, good for 15th in the league.

2. Saints (16)

Deuce McAllister had the best year of his career in 2006, and it was reflected in his team’s performance. We have McAllister ranked behind both Falcons running backs in our KUBIAK® fantasy football projections, but that’s less about McAllister and more about Reggie Bush, who should see more carries this season. Bush was deployed expertly by first-time head coach Sean Payton, and he got a lot more comfortable as the year went along, averaging 2.5 yards per carry in the Saints’ first eight games but 4.8 yards per carry in the final eight. Intriguing fourth-round pick Antonio Pittman adds to the depth, and Aaron Stecker is an excellent emergency option and, surprisingly, receiver. One of the tidbits from Pro Football Prospectus 2007, on sale next Monday at all fine, discerning and otherwise willing bookstores nationwide: last year, Stecker lined up as a wide receiver more often than any running back in the NFL other than Bush, Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook.

Frank Gore has overcome knee injuries to become one of the best running backs in the NFL. ( Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)

3. 49ers (29)

We knew Frank Gore would be good. When he first came out of college, we pointed out that Priest Holmes had knee injuries in college, too. We didn’t know he would be this good. In fact, we may be the only people in the world who are projecting Frank Gore, not LaDainian Tomlinson, as the best player in fantasy football this season. Though LT will score more touchdowns than Gore, he’s not going to score 31 again, and Gore figures to gain more yardage. Clearing the way for Gore is physical blocking fullback Moran Norris, a future All-Pro. Gore even has a pair of intriguing backups, shifty Maurice Hicks and trick-play-in-waiting Michael Robinson, the former Penn State quarterback. Intriguing is a good thing, but it’s a step below Michael Turner, which is why the 49ers are behind the Chargers.

4. Jaguars (30)

The turnaround from 30th to fourth can be summarized in three letters: MJD. Maurice Jones-Drew, he of the 23.6 percent rushing DVOA, 19.1 percent receiving DVOA, and 15 touchdowns in 2006, is far more than any ordinary complementary “third-down back”. He’s likely to become the primary running back in 2006, but he’ll still defer plenty of carries to Fred Taylor, who looked downright revitalized in 2006. There aren’t a lot of weaknesses between MJD and Taylor, but the few holes they may have in their skill sets are filled perfectly by Greg Jones, who returns from an ACL injury and should get some end-zone touches as a big Alstott-style fullback/halfback hybrid.

5. Redskins (3)

After signing backup Ladell Betts to an affordable 5-year, $11 million dollar deal in December, the Redskins will likely give the returning Clinton Portis breathers more often in 2007. After all, Coach Gibbs has generally been a year behind implementing the league’s latest trends. They’re likely to be one of the most improved teams in the weak NFC on the surface, and it will be in no small part to a healthy Portis and strong depth behind him. Former Jets RB Derrick Blaylock acquitted himself well enough whilst under Al Saunders in Kansas City, and fullback Mike Sellers is an all-around solid fullback. Depth? Washington? Don’t worry, it’s not habit-forming.

Poll

6. Vikings (14)

With three intriguing backs and the return of an impressive offensive line, the Vikings figure to be running the ball plenty this year. Given how bad the Vikings are at the quarterback position, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore and Adrian Peterson figure to get their chances if the Vikings are ahead or behind. As often happens, Taylor’s production per play dropped when he went from a Baltimore committee to the lead role in Minnesota. Having Peterson, this year’s top rookie running back prospect, means Taylor can return to sharing the load, which suits him better. While former Eagles offensive coordinator Brad Childress has begun to develop a team in the image of his former employer at wideout, Andy Reid never had a running back tandem quite like this.

7. Eagles (21)

Speaking of, the Eagles’ backs are more chronically underrated than Philly’s returning franchise quarterback. Asked to do a lot of pass catching and play second-fiddle to the pass-focused Philadelphia offense, Brian Westbrook has stayed healthy enough to where it’s really tough to think of a better back in his division over the last few years. Certainly the Eagles would miss Westbrook as much the Giants miss Tiki Barber, except, well, the Eagles actually have a running back plan that doesn’t involve a guy who feigns pregnancy after touchdowns. Correll Buckhalter’s return after three years’ worth of knee injuries was welcome in 2006, and he was one of the league’s most consistent backs when it came to gaining 3-5 yards every carry. At fullback, Thomas Tapeh takes over as the full-time starter, which has been a kiss of death position for Philadelphia in recent years. While no one is prepared to talk about a Curse of Cecil Martin, rule it out at your own peril.

8. Bengals (4)

The fact that Rudi Johnson has scored exactly the same number of touchdowns in each successive season means a lot less than the fact that Marvin Lewis has done a good job keeping his franchise back in the lineup. Johnson surely benefits from the dynamic Bengals passing game, but they also depend on his ability to stay on the field. Second-round pick Kenny Irons will compete with 2003 first-round pick and injury-riddled complementary back Chris Perry to serve alongside Johnson; the absence of Chris Henry for the first eight games of 2007 could mean more receptions for both Irons and Perry out of the backfield. Meanwhile, fullback Jeremi Johnson earned the team’s confidence to the tune of a five-year, $7.528 million extension. For a fullback. His presence, and the easy ripoff-ability of the Bengals nameplates (see “Cinco, Ocho”), ensures Rudi Johnson’s continued visibility to spotters league-wide.

9. Cowboys (22)

Feature back Julius Jones lost Bill Parcells’ confidence last year, allowing Marion Barber III to emerge as more than just a goal-line option. While Jones -1.9 percent DVOA (28th in the league in 2006) forms a case for him as a competent NFL running back, his resume for stardom seems more and more to consist solely of his breakout Thanksgiving Day performance against the Bears in 2004. While Barber still struggles with the finer points of running back play, his ability to run inside the tackles and pick up consistent significant yardage pushes him ahead of Jones. Regardless, when it comes to tandems that should be productive, the Boys’ lead the pack.

10. Chiefs (5)

Will Larry Johnson’s heavy 2006 workload hurt his production in 2007?

The argument will rage this season over whether Herman Edwards went too far in allowing Larry Johnson to carry 400 times last year. When Johnson comes out of the chute with a couple of typical performances, phrases like “gutty,” “Superman,” “trust the player,” and “Herman Edwards knows best” may be haphazardly thrown around. Whether the next result is Johnson going down with an injury (disastrously leaving the feature back role to Michael Bennett), or just being shut down as he was in the Colts’ first round playoff victory, there are some things we do know. When you carry that often (for no reason, we might add), you’re going to pay for it. If not this season, then next. If not next season, then for the rest of your life. Herman Edwards does not know best; he does not even know second-best. He knows worst. The loss of Will Shields and the arrival of limited run-blocker Damion McIntosh at left tackle will also make the Chiefs’ running backs numbers worse, regardless of who’s actually carrying the ball.

11. Patriots (10)

Losing Corey Dillon shouldn’t mean much, as the Patriots add former Dolphins back Sammy Morris to take his place as a blocker and short-yardage back. Morris should get more than his share of carries behind Laurence Maroney, and he’s the perfect back to handcuff Maroney with, as the Pats will likely rest their young star whenever they can; the consensus best team in the NFL figures to be ahead late in plenty of games. As with most positions for New England, the operative word is “depth”, which means lots of time on the field for Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Heath Evans, each of whom will be given a specific role to fill. With safeties no longer invited into the box following the arrival of Randy Moss and Donte’ Stallworth, a healthy Maroney’s upside is an MVP-caliber season.

12. Rams (24)

Former 26th overall pick Steven Jackson is a tough, durable back, as good a bet for 1,500 yards as players who will be drafted higher. It only helps fantasy owners that the Rams don’t have much depth behind Jackson between former Dolphins back Travis Minor and second-round pick Brian Leonard. The Rams expect to use Leonard as a hybrid back that catches and carries the ball while serving as a blocker, or as they used to be called, “full back”. While Jackson was able to make it through 436 touches last season, Leonard’s selection is a pretty strong indication the Rams realize that number is a little too high.

13. Colts (26)

New full-time feature back Joseph Addai figures to have a run of Edgerrin James-type seasons if he can stay on the field. Considering the back-up options, he had better do just that. Two words that strike fear into the hearts of Hoosiers everywhere: DeDe Dorsey. Yes, that’s Addai’s backup, an undrafted second-year player out of NAIA-level Lindenwood. After that, it’s Harvard rookie Clifton Dawson. What committee? The Colts would be in the top 10 if their backfield consisted of more than one trustworthy player.

14. Seahawks (1)

Fullback Mack Strong completely came apart last year, as the Seahawks were much better in one-back sets. Backup Maurice Morris was serviceable enough, but it’s the possibility that Shaun Alexander has another full season of health in him that gets the Seahawks this high. He’s not likely to be an annual MVP candidate, and if does get nicked up, the easy schedule of Mike Holmgren’s team should be reason enough to give him a rest. There are no teams with marquee backs below the Seahawks, which means the 2007 group is as good as how full your glass is.

Shaun Alexander’s foot injury and the departure of guard Steve Hutchison were merely the tip of the iceberg last season — Maurice Morris failed to approach either his or Alexander’s 2005 DVOA, while the finally-appreciated Mack Strong ceased to deserve said appreciation, clearly losing a step as a blocker. While Alexander’s likely to improve after his return to health, he’s already seen his best days.

15. Steelers (8)

Former Jets red-zone “specialist” Kevan Barlow joins the team of Najeh Davenport and Willie Parker. Barlow’s closer to being out of football than he is of being a legitimate starting running back, but since he was a starter at the tail end of the hiccup of the 49ers dynasty, his reputation belies his ability. Since nothing too interesting is going on at PNC Park, new head coach Mike Tomlin’s every move will make news this summer. It should be interesting to see how this group fares in the post-Cowher era, so perhaps it’s fair to put a team with a history of moving the ball well on the ground right in the middle of the pack. advertisement

16. Ravens (6)

A lot depends on what you think of the Willis McGahee signing; consider, though, that first-round guards are the most consistently successful first-round picks according to our research, and Auburn’s Ben Grubbs will be at one of Baltimore’s guard slots this upcoming season. McGahee’s been a consistently mediocre running back in Buffalo, and will be moving to a line of similar quality in Baltimore. With McGahee’s injury history and Baltimore’s ability to find running backs on the sly (e.g. Priest Holmes and Chester Taylor), McGahee’s acquisition is a strange fit and not one likely to be met with a significant improvement on his previous numbers. With Mike Anderson just about done and P.J. Daniels still inexperienced, there could be serious problems if McGahee’s injury issues flare up again.

Mark Kriegel

FOXSports.com, Updated 3 hours ago

Editor’s note: Hours after Mark Kriegel’s column was written and posted, Nike announced that it was suspending the release of its Air Zoom Vick V shoe.

When asked for comment on Michael Vick’s indictment as the alleged owner and impresario of a merciless dogfighting operation, Nike e-mailed the Associated Press a statement, saying that it is “reviewing the information.”

In other words, Nike said nothing, did nothing. In cases like these, this is what the sneaker giant usually does. So don’t be surprised. Be disappointed.

Even the NFL, which paid proper homage to due process, came out with a statement saying that the league was “disappointed that Michael Vick has put himself in a position where a federal grand jury has returned an indictment against him … The activities alleged are cruel, degrading and illegal …”

The Falcons, for their part, acknowledged that the organization was “disturbed by the news.”

Feeling the pressure?

Nike appears to have felt some heat on the Michael Vick issue. And as a result, the company has decided to suspend the release of its Air Zoom Vick V shoe this summer.

But with the launch of the Zoom Vick V — which your kids can buy for a mere $100 — a month away, Nike is studying the situation. All of a sudden, the company that made cool a corporate art form sounds like the Pentagon. Did you really expect different?

It’s not about the dogs.

It’s about the shoes.

Actually, this being Nike, it’s also about image. And whether Nike wants to realize it or not, Vick’s has been irreparably harmed.

Not so long ago, Michael Vick was projected as the ballplayer for his time, a star whose gifts were ideally suited for the digital age. In the post-Jordan era, he played the hot position in the hot sport. There had never been a quarterback like Vick, who just may be the best athlete ever to take a snap.

One doesn’t need to be a great athlete to be a great quarterback, of course. But in this age of computer-generated special effects, he had that most precious commodity: the capacity to thrill. So, after only three pro seasons, with his completion percentage at a mere 52 percent, Vick earned simulated gridiron’s highest honor. His likeness was featured on the cover of Madden NFL 2004.

Vick might have taken to calling himself Superman, but Nike — whose imprimatur remains the gold standard among athletic endorsements — knew even better. Nike called him money. You may recall one of the most spectacularly produced commercials — The Michael Vick Experience — in which a young fan is strapped into a ride through which he sees, feels and hears the game through the quarterback’s perspective, finally and miraculously somersaulting into the end zone.

Now Michael Vick’s experience — real, not simulated — will include arraignment, a possible perpwalk, perhaps even jail time. I’m not saying Vick will do time, just that there’s a chance. The case against him seems stronger than say, the sexual assault case against another Nike endorser, Kobe Bryant. That was his word against hers in a state court. And when the alleged victim backed off, the case collapsed.

This is a federal case. The feds would not go digging around Vick’s property at 1915 Moonlight Road, Smithfield, Va., to make a case against Larry, Moe and Curley. Image means a lot to them, too. The feds want a star quarterback. And they wouldn’t have brought the indictment if they didn’t think the case against him was a very good bet.

It’s a conspiracy case, though. They’re generally much easier to charge than to prove. The indictment speaks of three informants. They will not be good guys; they will be vulnerable on the stand — the cruelest, most vicious dog being infinitely more sympathetic than a rat.

Still, the fact is, there is no way for Vick to win here. Even if he wins in court, the damage will be severe. A bar fight, a substance abuse problem, all of that can be dealt with. But in the public’s mind, dogfighting is somewhere between wife-beating and the ultimate sin, point-shaving.

It’s bad enough that Vick’s career completion percentage remains at 53.8 percent, and that he finished last season out of the playoffs with the league’s 20th best quarterback rating. But cruelty to dogs? That’s not going to fly. That’s an irredeemable sin in a country where Marley and Me has been a bestseller for the last nine-and-a-half years.

The indictment says Vick bet large sums on dogs, and that he had losers killed — electrocuted, shot, drowned, smashed against the ground. He may have even killed some himself.

More than a month ago, Vick told an Atlanta TV station: “Everywhere I go, all around the world, people still support Mike Vick. So regardless of what I go through people gonna love me.”

That’s the Michael Vick Experience right there, as out of touch as his biggest corporate sponsor.

Training camp goals: Chargers

Camp goals | Strategy and personnel | Camp calendar

Training camp goals

1. Coaching ‘em up

After winning two AFC West titles in three years and compiling an NFL-best regular-season mark of 14-2, Marty Schottenheimer was forced out. Enter Norv Turner, who is known for two things: being an offensive guru and a bust as an NFL head coach.

This will be Turner’s third shot directing his own squad and the Chargers fans’ fingers are crossed this time is the charm. In stints with the Redskins and Raiders, Turner’s mark is 58-82-1.

The Chargers’ brass is quick to point out those franchises produced teams not nearly as stout as the Chargers. And that assessment is right on.

Turner takes over a team that is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. That said, Turner still needs to prove he can lead an entire team, and not just one aspect of it.

Turner, though, won’t need any time making adjustments to the Chargers’ high-powered offense, led by NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. It was Turner, as the offensive coordinator, who installed the scheme back in 2001.

2. Getting the inside right

The Chargers, after going 14-2, have few questions and not many positions unsettled. But that’s not the case at inside linebacker, where the Chargers must find ample replacements for veterans Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey.

The plan is for Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper, two guys who have paid their dues, to fill in for the two 12-year pros.

In short stints, Wilhelm and Cooper have done little to show they can’t do the job. But filling in occasionally and doing it on a weekly basis are two different things.

It’s critical Wilhelm and Cooper prove early that they are up to the task. The Chargers have a had a stout run defense for years and that helped fuel last year’s showing as the top team in sacks. When the Chargers are successful on the early downs, it puts rivals in obvious passing situations which the linebackers on the edge — Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips — can take advantage of.

3. Establish a solid wide-receiver group

While nearly every other position strikes fear into defensive coordinators, the wide receivers’ spot remains a work-in-progress.

With veteran Keenan McCardell not invited back, the team turns to third-year pro Vincent Jackson as the go-to guy. Jackson has the size and speed to be a difference-maker but he has had problems avoiding injuries and playing with consistency.

The team burnt its top pick on Louisiana State’s Craig Davis, hoping his ability to run after the catch will increase his productivity.

Eric Parker is the No. 3 receiver, but he first must put a disastrous showing in last season’s playoff loss behind him.

Broncos | Chargers | Chiefs | Raiders

For these QBs, it’s win now … or else

By Skip Wood, USA TODAY

As NFL training camps begin this weekend, many teams won’t need an X or an O to represent the quarterback in their offensive play diagrams. A question mark would work just as well.

Instability among starters at the game’s most important position is almost epidemic around the league this summer. Even putting aside the inevitability of injury, midseason — or even mid-camp — change is foreseeable for more than half of the 32 teams.

Len Dawson, a Hall of Fame quarterback and an NFL analyst for more than two decades, says he’s never seen so many passer predicaments at once.

Not “at least in the modern era,” says Dawson, who led the Kansas City Chiefs to victory in Super Bowl IV. “Back in my era, before free agency … we didn’t have this, but now I think what you’re seeing is just a sign of the times.”

Besides players’ increased freedom to switch clubs, teams’ uncertainty at quarterback comes from more pressure than ever being placed on the position. They need to win now for constantly revolving coaches. They have to justify large salaries and elite draft status. They must master mind-bendingly complex playbooks and decision-making. Then there are increasingly large, fast and strong defenders capable of inflicting injury on every snap.

“If a guy doesn’t perform almost immediately, or at least show signs of real potential, then you start looking for other options,” says another Hall of Fame quarterback, Warren Moon.

For every Peyton Manning, coming off his first Super Bowl win with the Indianapolis Colts, there’s at least one Eli Manning, who through his three seasons with the New York Giants has yet to overcome frustrating inconsistency.

For every Tom Brady, he of the three Super Bowl trophies with the New England Patriots, there’s at least one Donovan McNabb, a five-time Pro Bowler who has not won a Super Bowl and has missed time the last two seasons for the Philadelphia Eagles because of injuries.

For every Drew Brees, who spearheaded the New Orleans Saints’ resurgence a year ago, there’s a Michael Vick, whose uneven play and low pass-completion percentage had vexed the Atlanta Falcons — and now he faces federal charges related to his alleged involvement with dogfighting.

“You’re always looking for ‘that guy,’ ” Moon says, “and if you don’t have a real good one, that’s going to be a problem.”

There are exceptions. The Chicago Bears reached the Super Bowl last season with underwhelming play from Rex Grossman.

In the last 10 seasons, however, seven teams that won the Super Bowl had true stars at quarterback: John Elway (two titles), Kurt Warner (one), Brady (three) and now Peyton Manning.

Even the other three championship quarterbacks — the Baltimore Ravens’ Trent Dilfer, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Brad Johnson and Pittsburgh Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger— were capable managers who minimized pivotal mistakes.

Thus, much of the conversation about quarterbacks this season is occurring in the interrogative.

Can someone become a new star? Who’s too old? Who’s too young? Who will start the season on the field but end on the sideline?

Great expectations

When the Giants acquired No. 1 draft pick Eli Manning from the San Diego Chargers the day he was chosen, expectations were heady. Family lineage indicated Eli would follow in the footsteps of his brother Peyton and his father, Archie.

He inherited the starting job early in his rookie season and has kept it. He’s coming off his best season in terms of completion percentage (.577), which gives him a .541 career mark. But to go with his 54 career touchdown passes are 44 interceptions and a penchant for streaky play.

The Giants’ new offensive coordinator, Kevin Gilbride, who moved up from quarterbacks coach and recruited Chris Palmer to be Manning’s new position guru, still thinks Eli has the necessary tools.

“You know, he’s somewhat enigmatic in that we see moments of brilliance and moments of poise and physical toughness and skill that are just almost dazzling,” Gilbride says.

“The biggest challenge we’re going to have is getting Eli to play as we see in moments over the course of a whole season. And I think we can do that, and I think Chris is the perfect choice to be able to help bring that out of him.”

However, the team signed veteran backup Anthony Wright during the offseason — just in case.

Injuries hamper a career

Looking to quell talk of a quarterback controversy that would carry into training camp, Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio named Byron Leftwich his starter soon after last season. So now, heading into the fifth and final year of his contract, Leftwich is in a position that dictates success — or else.

Injuries, though, have plagued him. He played in six games last season, down from 11 the previous season, and David Garrard filled in capably. Yet it’s hard to dismiss the worth of a player who has 51 career touchdowns, 36 interceptions and a 59% completion rate.

He understands why some do.

“I don’t care who you are, if you miss as many games as I did the last two years, there are going to be doubters,” Leftwich says. “People are going to question: Can you do this, or can you do that? That is the frustrating part of it. People start to question your ability when you are not out there. …

“Instead of saying you are injury-prone, what is being questioned is if I can play. When I am out there, I am going to win more than I am going to lose. I know that. … That’s what always happens when I am out there on a consistent basis.”

A quarterback’s development

After Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan finally replaced Jake Plummer last season with 2006 first-round draft pick Jay Cutler, the rookie responded nicely.

He started the final five games, throwing nine touchdown passes against five interceptions and completing 59.1% of his passes.

So is he the future? Shanahan certainly hopes so. The Broncos traded Plummer, who retired, and signed Patrick Ramsey, 28, as Cutler’s understudy.

“This is a growing process, and he is maturing by working extremely hard,” Shanahan says. “Hopefully, the learning curve keeps going and he plays well. … A quarterback can’t do it all, and hopefully we have the supporting cast to take a little bit of pressure off of him.”

The Broncos have brought in players, including running back Travis Henry from the Tennessee Titans and wide receiver Brandon Stokley from the Colts. Cutler likes the newcomers and is looking forward to continuing his relatively surprising ascent.

“With Mike always sitting back there watching and critiquing, he’s so much further ahead of me brain-wise with this offense,” he says. “It’s tough stuff, but I feel comfortable with it. I feel I’ve got a lot of the basic stuff down, a lot of the stuff I didn’t have last year.

“I’m able to put some things together that I wasn’t able to (last season), so it’s always going to be a learning process, but I think I’m catching up to it.”

Weighing present vs. future

Now that Trent Green is with the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs are looking at one of the more intriguing quarterback competitions going into training camp.

Do they go with 11-year veteran Damon Huard, who just signed a contract, or with Brodie Croyle, who was drafted in 2006?

Huard guided the Chiefs to a 5-3 record last season after Green suffered a concussion in Week 1. Yet Croyle is the hope for the future. What to do in the present?

“That’s going to be the big question around here,” Dawson says. “I do think that Brodie’s going to be given every opportunity to show what he can do.”

Chiefs coach Herm Edwards doesn’t disagree. How each quarterback reacts to Edwards’ run-oriented approach will be pivotal.

“You tell those guys, ‘You don’t have to win the game, but you have the ability to lose the game if you make some bad throws,’ ” he says. “That’s not like you’re going to play cautious, but your surrounding cast will help win the game. … If they learn that, they’ll be fine.

“As they gain confidence, you open things up for them. But it’s all about confidence at any position … the quarterback, especially, because of the fact that he touches the ball every play. You have this team in your hands.”

Michael Vick’s legal troubles prompted Nike yesterday to suspend the release of its latest product line named after the Atlanta Falcons quarterback.

Nike has told retailers it will not release a fifth signature shoe, the Air Zoom Vick V, this summer. Company spokesman Dean Stoyer said the four shoe products and three shirts that currently bear Vick’s name will remain in stores.

Falcons quarterback Michael Vick will be arraigned next week in a Richmond, Va., federal courtroom on charges of sponsoring a gruesome dogfighting operation. (Tami Chappell - Reuters) Falcons Basics

Vick will be arraigned next week in a Richmond federal courtroom on charges of sponsoring a gruesome dogfighting operation. Stoyer said the company still has a standing contract with Vick but declined to speculate on his future with Nike.

A statement Nike released said the company “is concerned by the serious and highly disturbing allegations made against Michael Vick, and we consider any cruelty to animals inhumane and abhorrent. We do believe that Michael Vick should be afforded the same due process as any citizen; therefore, we have not terminated our relationship.”

Stoyer, who declined to discuss the terms of Vick’s contract with Nike, indicated the company has no commercials or documentaries planned with the three-time NFL Pro Bowl selection.

Poker: PPA Chairman Alfonse D’Amato Announces 500% Membership Increase In his half-year letter to members of the Poker Players Alliance, Chairman and former Republican New York Senator Alfonse D’Amato mentioned major accomplishments that likely exceeded even the poker world’s initial expectations.

A 500% increase in Poker Players Alliance membership, 4 bills pending in the House, and plenty of optimism.

Our staff here at Crush Shot Sports, Betting Odds - Graffiti Wall encourage our readers and friends of poker to join and get your voice heard. Here was the letter Mr. D’Amato sent out to members today.

Dear PPA Members,

We have accomplished so much in so little time! Our membership has grown more than 500% since the first of the year, to over 600,000 members — thanks in no small part to you telling your fellow poker enthusiasts to join our cause. We are well on our way to our One Million Member target, and I again ask for your help by encouraging your family, friends and tablemates to join the PPA.

In Washington: Things are moving and moving fast. There are 4 bills pending in the House of Representatives that are helpful for on-line poker and our members. We are strongly supporting two of these bills: Congressman Barney Frank’s H.R. 2046, the “Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act” and Congressman Robert Wexler’s H.R. 2610, the “Skill Games Protection Act”.

Other bills include Congresswoman Shelley Berkley’s H.R. 2410, which calls for a study of Internet Gaming, and Congressman McDermott’s H.R. 2607, which amends H.R. 2610 with a revenue component.

In all, we have a lot of momentum, but we still need your help. I just returned from the World Series of Poker, where PPA hosted Congressman Wexler. We saw first-hand the growth and grandeur of the sport of poker, and we asked the WSOP players for their support. They responded in droves, proving that poker enthusiasts are dedicated activists.

As you know, we are a membership-driven organization and we need your support. We lobby on Capitol Hill and in state capitols to defend poker, but these efforts are not without cost.

We know you agree that poker is not a crime…but we need your help to prevent the coming of the day when the law says it is. Can you assist with an ante up of $5 or more and donate to the PPA, or can you upgrade your membership from an introductory membership to a full membership or even a supporting membership? If you are already a full member, can you consider donating an additional amount for the 2007 campaign?

Please also note we have a store where you can purchase merchandise from PPA hats and t-shirts, to PPA poker tables. Proceeds from these sales go directly to fund our campaign for poker and keep us going strong. Please spare what you can — think of it as putting in your Ante to say you’re Proud to Play Poker!

Regards,

Senator Al D’Amato Chairman of the Board Poker Players Alliance

Atlanta, GA - The St. Louis Cardinals activated outfielder Jim Edmonds off the disabled list Thursday.

Edmonds has missed the last 26 games since suffering a pinched nerve in his lower back. The eight-time Gold Glove winner was in the starting lineup against Atlanta.

Edmonds was batting just .238 with seven homers and 24 runs batted in this season. To make room for him on the roster, St. Louis optioned reliever Andy Cavazos to Triple-A Memphis.

The Cardinals also announced that third baseman Scott Rolen traveled back to St. Louis Wednesday to receive a cortizone shot and check-up on his ailing left shoulder.

Rolen underwent arthroscopic surgery on the same shoulder in May of 2005, limiting him to just 56 games that season. He enjoyed a productive 2006 for the World Champion Cardinals, but his power numbers dipped toward the end of the regular season.

Rolen, who has just four home runs this year, is expected to join the team in Atlanta.

Rome, Italy - Former world pole vaulting champion Giuseppe Gibilisco received a two-year ban for doping Wednesday.

The Italian athletics federation (FIDAL) made the decision with Gibilisco at the hearing.

Gibilisco was the 2003 world champion and earned a bronze medal at the 2004 Olympics

Stuttgart, Germany - Top-seeded Spaniard Rafael Nadal cruised in second round action at the Mercedes Cup on Thursday.

Nadal recorded a straight set win over Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-3, 6-3, on the red clay. He has now won 90 of his last 91 matches on clay and is on course for his sixth title of the year and first on clay since winning the French Open earlier this year.

Nadal will next face eighth-seeded Argentine Juan Monaco in the quarterfinal round on Friday.

Monaco scored a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 win over Austria’s Stefan Koubek on Thursday. He lost his only career match against Nadal.

Third-seeded Czech Tomas Berdych was ousted in second-round action, falling to Feliciano Lopez, 6-0, 6-3. The Spaniard will next face sixth-seeded fellow countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero in the quarters.

Ferrero beat Argentina’s Diego Hartfield, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3, on Thursday.

Ferrero won the only meeting with Lopez, downing him in straight sets on the clay in Barcelona in 2005.